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Climate Change

Global Sea Level December 2027

Global Sea Level December 2027 · December 2027 · Trading open

$2.4K vol.
Show all 19 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 114.8 at 98%, ahead of Above 87.3 at 98%.

The market has $2.4K in volume across 603 trades; the most recent was on Oct 17, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 31, 2027. The result is confirmed by NASA.

Global mean sea level is an important climate indicator, providing information on how the ocean is warming and how much land ice is melting. The NASA JASON satellite measures sea level data for the entire planet every 10 days.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 114.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 114.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 87.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 87.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 117.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 117.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 89.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 89.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 89.9Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 89.9 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 92.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 92.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
Show rules for all 19 outcomes
  • Above 94.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 94.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 97.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 97.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 99.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 99.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 102.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 102.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 104.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 104.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 119.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 119.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 107.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 107.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 109.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 109.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 122.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 122.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 112.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 112.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 124.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 124.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 127.3Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 127.3 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.
  • Above 84.8Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 84.8 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2027?” is yes.

Result confirmed by NASA.

Trading opened
Dec 31, 2024
Trading closes
Dec 31, 2027
Expected result
Dec 31, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 2, 2028

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.