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Climate Change

Global Sea Level December 2030

Global Sea Level 2030 · Dec 31, 2030 · Trading open

$1.5K vol.
Show all 21 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 102.5 at 64%, ahead of Above 87.5 at 64%.

The market has $1.5K in volume across 456 trades; the most recent was on May 12, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 31, 2030. The result is confirmed by NASA.

Global mean sea level is an important climate indicator, providing information on how the ocean is warming and how much land ice is melting. The NASA JASON satellite measures sea level data for the entire planet every 10 days.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 102.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 102.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 87.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 87.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 92.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 92.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 97.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 97.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 107.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 107.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 112.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 112.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
Show rules for all 21 outcomes
  • Above 117.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 117.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 132.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 132.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 122.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 122.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 125Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 125 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 127.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 127.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 130Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 130 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 135Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 135 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 137.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 137.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 142.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 142.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 147.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 147.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 152.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 152.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 157.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 157.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 162.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 162.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 77.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 77.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.
  • Above 82.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 82.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2030?” is yes.

Result confirmed by NASA.

Trading opened
Oct 1, 2024
Trading closes
Dec 31, 2030
Expected result
Dec 31, 2030
Expected payout
Jan 2, 2031

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.