Birkenstock Holding

BIRK · NYSE

$32.57−$1.11 (−3.30%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:50 PM ET

Prev close $33.68

BIRK analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 77% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $54.07 (+66.0% upside)

Low: $27.27
Now: $32.57
High: $85.03

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BIRK analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Raymond James	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$52.00 → $42.00	58%
BMO Capital	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Outperform → Market Perform	$35.00	77%
Telsey Advisory Group	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$45.00 → $50.00	49%
Bernstein	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$50.00 → $55.00	—
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$48.00 → $49.00	55%
Guggenheim	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00	60%
BTIG	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00	51%
BTIG	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00	51%
UBS	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$77.00 → $76.00	50%
JP Morgan	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$49.00 → $58.00	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Birkenstock Holding is supported by a durable brand moat built on comfort-focused, timeless designs, with 76% of 2022 sales concentrated in its top five iconic models and a reputation for sustainable European manufacturing that reinforces pricing power and repeat demand. The business showed broad-based strength in F'Q3, with revenue up 15% in constant currency to €720M, Adjusted EBITDA of €242M, and margin of 33.7%, while DTC accelerated 16% and wholesale remained resilient across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC. Its outlook is further strengthened by raised FY guidance to 15% constant-currency revenue growth and at least €710M of Adjusted EBITDA, alongside capacity investments, expanding store openings, and APAC’s higher-growth potential.

Bear case

Birkenstock Holding is facing a fundamental margin squeeze as gross margins fell 250+ bps in F'26 and adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 70 bps in 3Q, with tariff and FX headwinds outweighing capacity-absorption gains. Its DTC channel is lagging wholesale growth, while U.S. DTC data showed a ~3% YoY decline in F'Q3 and a sharper ~16% YoY deceleration QTD through the first four weeks of July, signaling weakening demand momentum. The business also remains exposed to concentration risk from its top five models, production bottlenecks tied to clog demand, and regional volatility, including €10M-€12M in H'2 top-line risk from EMEA macro headwinds.

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