Fastenal

FAST · NASDAQ

$51.65+$0.63 (+1.23%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $51.02

FAST analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 30% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold3
Underperform4
Sell0

12-month price target · 16 analysts

Average $49.72 (−3.7% downside)

Low: $40.82
Now: $51.65
High: $61.95

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FAST analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
DA Davidson	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$51.00	65%
Bernstein	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$42.00 → $47.00	29%
Baird	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$59.00 → $60.00	64%
Wolfe Research	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Underperform	$51.00	59%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$48.00 → $52.00	68%
Barclays	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$47.00 → $46.00	62%
DA Davidson	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$46.00	65%
Rothschild & Co	Jul 13, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$55.00	100%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 8, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$45.00 → $48.00	68%
Barclays	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$46.00 → $47.00	62%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Fastenal is favored for its durable competitive moat, built on a dense branch-and-onsite network, captive trucking, and an expanding Focus-40 playbook that drives new contract wins and customer stickiness. Despite June sales growth of +15.0% y/y ADS and contract count expanding +7.2% y/y, the key thesis remains that it can keep gaining roughly +500-600bp of market share in a highly fragmented ~$140B TAM while growing through onsite, vending, and FMI solutions. Its fundamentals are also supported by a strong culture and sourcing scale, with 1,595 branches and roughly 1,774 Onsites exiting 2025, though investors should watch SG&A and price/cost pressure that recently left EBIT margin at 21.0%.

Bear case

Fastenal is facing a weaker fundamental setup because lingering price/cost pressure, a more rigid national-account contract mix, and sharply higher fuel costs are squeezing profitability despite solid volume growth. June ADS growth of +15.0% y/y and 2Q EBIT margin of 21.0% show operational strength, but gross margin still fell to 44.6% and management commentary suggests near-term margin pressure could persist with typical seasonality. The company’s heavy reliance on large on-site customers also creates a structural mix headwind, and any softening in North American industrial demand could further slow volume growth and amplify downside risk.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.