Madison Air Solutions

MAIR · NYSE

$23.19+$0.01 (+0.04%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $23.18

MAIR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 75% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $40.80 (+75.9% upside)

Low: $30.30
Now: $23.19
High: $51.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MAIR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$38.00 → $35.00	43%
Citigroup	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$49.00 → $40.00	63%
Wells Fargo	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$46.00 → $33.00	0%
RBC Capital	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$47.00 → $38.00	57%
Stifel	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$49.00 → $41.00	61%
RBC Capital	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$50.00 → $47.00	57%
Wells Fargo	Jul 10, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$47.00 → $46.00	0%
Stifel	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $49.00	61%
Jefferies	May 13, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$45.00	62%
RBC Capital	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$48.00 → $50.00	57%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Madison Air Solutions is well positioned because its 1Q26 revenue and EBITDA beat expectations, pro forma orders rose 29% year over year, and backlog climbed to a record $2.5 billion, supporting near-term visibility with a 1.4x book-to-bill. Its Commercial segment is the main growth engine, benefiting from strong demand in data centers, logistics, healthcare, and other institutional end markets, while the company’s custom, value-based “Return on Air” model helps sustain premium pricing and margin expansion. Residential remains resilient despite a softer macro backdrop because Madison Air avoids commoditized central A/C, focuses on healthy-air solutions with large whitespace, and is also improving financial flexibility as net leverage falls toward less than 2.5x within twelve months.

Bear case

Madison Air Solutions is weighed down by a highly cyclical revenue base that is concentrated in HVAC and IAQ end markets, with 34% of sales tied to residential demand that is already under pressure from elevated mortgage rates, housing affordability stress, and weak new construction. Competitive intensity, commodity inflation in steel, copper, and aluminum, and tariff exposure from manufacturing in Canada, Mexico, and China add further margin risk, while 2025 tariff costs were about $51 million, or 2.5% of COGS. The company also entered the market with leverage of 3.2x net debt/EBITDA, above the ~1.1x sector average, limiting flexibility and increasing financial risk if slower economic growth or softer replacement volumes persist.

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