Mediaalpha

MAX · NYSE

$11.79+$0.49 (+4.34%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Prev close $11.30

MAX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 57% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $16.03 (+36.0% upside)

Low: $11.11
Now: $11.79
High: $19.95

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MAX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Goldman Sachs	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$14.00 → $10.50	55%
JP Morgan	Aug 24, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$15.00	27%
RBC Capital	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$11.00 → $15.00	57%
Goldman Sachs	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$10.00 → $14.00	55%
Canaccord Genuity	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00 → $17.00	52%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 8, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$15.00 → $17.00	61%
TD Cowen	Jun 23, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$13.00 → $11.00	54%
JP Morgan	Apr 30, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$11.00 → $12.00	46%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Apr 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$16.00 → $15.00	61%
JP Morgan	Feb 24, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$15.00 → $11.00	46%

The case for and against

Updated Feb 9, 2026

Bull case

MediaAlpha Inc. reported a total transaction value of approximately $589 million for Q3, representing a year-over-year increase of around 30%, while the property and casualty (P&C) vertical experienced a robust growth of 42% year-over-year. The company's adjusted total revenue rose by 18% year-over-year to $306.5 million, with an adjusted contribution of $45.6 million and a margin of 7.7% relative to total transaction value. The positive outlook is further supported by expectations of improved profitability among auto insurance carriers, which is anticipated to lead to a sustained recovery in customer acquisition spending and an expanded addressable market from increased premiums.

Bear case

MediaAlpha's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a significant decline of approximately 40% year-over-year in its Health TV segment, which has been adversely affected by reduced performance in both the under-65 health and Medicare segments. The company's Q4 revenue guidance of $280-300 million reflects a 3.5% year-over-year decrease at the midpoint, falling short of market expectations of around $308 million. Additionally, the sensitivity of MediaAlpha's earnings estimates reveals that a mere 10% fluctuation in predictions would result in a corresponding shift in price targets, highlighting the volatility and fragility of its financial standing.

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