Seagate Technology Holdings

STX · NASDAQ

$675.13+$14.32 (+2.17%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $660.81

STX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 23 analysts over the last 12 months. 91% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy21
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 25 analysts

Average $1,122.19 (+66.2% upside)

Low: $721.14
Now: $675.13
High: $1,470.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

STX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,187.00 → $1,200.00	63%
Wells Fargo	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,180.00 → $865.00	54%
Argus Research	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$750.00 → $900.00	60%
Barclays	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,000.00 → $1,250.00	64%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,035.00 → $1,187.00	63%
JP Morgan	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,095.00 → $1,240.00	58%
TD Cowen	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$850.00 → $1,000.00	56%
Susquehanna	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$775.00 → $875.00	59%
Wedbush	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$825.00 → $1,000.00	72%
Wells Fargo	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,100.00 → $1,180.00	73%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Seagate Technology Hldgs is viewed positively because its cloud-storage HDD duopoly, with about 90% market share alongside Western Digital, is benefiting from structurally stronger demand, improving pricing power, and a cloud mix that has risen from 25% in 2019 to about 65% this year. The company’s fundamentals are strengthening as March-quarter results showed 47.0% gross margin, $953M in free cash flow, 31% FCF margin, 14% year-over-year cost/TB declines, and 46% year-over-year nearline exabyte growth, while June-quarter guidance points to roughly 50% gross margin and $5.00 EPS. Ongoing HAMR adoption, with Mozaic 3+ fully qualified at major US CSPs and Mozaic 4+ ramping, should support further margin expansion, better ASPs, and continued debt reduction and shareholder returns.

Bear case

Seagate Technology Hldgs is viewed negatively because its revenue base is heavily exposed to cyclical cloud and enterprise demand, with 70% of sales tied to data center customers and 80% of total revenues coming from data center in the quarter. The outlook is pressured by a potential pause in new data center builds, lower-than-expected yields on 30TB HAMR drives, and SSD pricing that remains weak while cannibalizing about 30% of revenues, especially in mission-critical and consumer drives. Although the company shipped 199EB and 175EB of Nearline capacity, those volumes lagged the pace of revenue growth, and declining payables to $1.694B with DPOs near 89 days can signal tighter operating leverage and reduced flexibility if oversupply or slower global IT spending persists.

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