TKO Group Holdings

TKO · NYSE

$179.64+$5.40 (+3.10%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $174.24

TKO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 90% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 20 analysts

Average $235.68 (+31.2% upside)

Low: $189.88
Now: $179.64
High: $262.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TKO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Guggenheim	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$235.00 → $228.00	45%
Susquehanna	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Positive	$235.00 → $224.00	50%
Bernstein	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$235.00 → $240.00	7%
Guggenheim	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$230.00 → $235.00	45%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$225.00 → $230.00	61%
BTIG	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$237.00	39%
BTIG	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$237.00	39%
Bernstein	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$240.00 → $235.00	7%
JP Morgan	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$225.00 → $222.00	69%
Guggenheim	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$232.00 → $230.00	45%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

TKO Group Holdings is attractive because its UFC and WWE franchises produce premium, year-round content with industry-leading margins and strong pricing power, supporting durable cash flow and top-line growth. In 1Q26, UFC revenue/EBITDA reached $401M/$255M and WWE $476M/$256M, while management is still monetizing live events more aggressively, with site fee revenue targeted to rise from a ~$240mm normalized run-rate to ~$400mm by 2030. Sponsorship and partnerships also remain under-penetrated, with TKO targeting $1.2bn by 2030, and the added ~$1B buyback plus ~1.6% dividend yield reinforce shareholder-friendly capital allocation.

Bear case

TKO Group Holdings is vulnerable to a heavy concentration of value in UFC and WWE, making its outlook highly dependent on continued fan engagement, talent retention, and the ability to keep both brands culturally relevant. The thesis is pressured by headline risks around television renewal, recessionary weakness in consumer spending, competition from better-capitalized entrants, and geopolitical volatility in key event regions, any of which could hit media rights, sponsorship, ticketing, and licensing demand. Even with strong event metrics like UFC Freedom 250’s 34MM global viewers and WrestleMania 42’s 106k attendees, recent margin assumptions were trimmed to 57.1% for UFC and 59.2% for WWE, underscoring limited room for error after a $30MM near-term production hit.

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