Tencent Music Entertainment Group

TME · NYSE

$8.51−$0.09 (−1.05%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $8.60

TME analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 38% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 27 analysts

Average $12.51 (+47.0% upside)

Low: $4.21
Now: $8.51
High: $21.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TME analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
China Renaissance	Aug 12, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	$9.30	33%
Mizuho	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$18.00 → $15.00	64%
JP Morgan	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$12.00 → $10.00	39%
Mizuho	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$23.00 → $18.00	64%
Barclays	Mar 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$28.00 → $20.00	43%
UBS	Mar 18, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$26.00 → $13.00	29%
JP Morgan	Mar 18, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Neutral	$12.00	39%
Mizuho	Mar 18, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$28.00 → $23.00	64%
Benchmark	Mar 18, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	—	48%
Macquarie	Mar 5, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$14.10	38%

The case for and against

Updated Nov 28, 2024

Bull case

Tencent Music Entertainment Group demonstrates a strong market position as the largest online music service provider in China, with paying user growth reaching 20.8% year-over-year and totaling 103 million, significantly outpacing its peers. The company has also shown impressive financial metrics, with gross profit margin achieving a record high of 38.3% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a substantial year-over-year improvement of 536 basis points. Moreover, an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) to 10 RMB for the first time and a pricing premium over competitors rising to 45% in 2023 signals robust revenue potential and competitive strength for the business.

Bear case

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is experiencing significant financial challenges, as evidenced by a year-over-year decline of 51.4% and 54% in monthly ARPPU within its social entertainment segment, despite a slight increase in paying users of approximately 5.4%. The company’s outlook for social entertainment remains cautious, projecting a 34% year-over-year decline for FY23, primarily attributed to competitive pressures and a saturated livestreaming market. Additionally, TME faces downside risks from potential regulatory tightening, macroeconomic uncertainties, and margin pressures stemming from content investments, all contributing to a negative outlook for the stock.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.