Upstart Holdings

UPST · NASDAQ

$23.65+$0.40 (+1.72%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:58 PM ET

Prev close $23.25

UPST analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 47% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold5
Underperform3
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $40.80 (+72.5% upside)

Low: $20.20
Now: $23.65
High: $64.05

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

UPST analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citizens	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Market Underperform	$20.00 → $18.00	56%
Goldman Sachs	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$39.00 → $28.00	52%
BTIG	Sep 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$43.00	46%
Loop Capital	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$34.00	54%
Needham	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00 → $42.00	40%
Piper Sandler	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$46.00 → $51.00	60%
BTIG	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$43.00	49%
Citigroup	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$80.00 → $61.00	46%
Goldman Sachs	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$32.00 → $39.00	52%
Needham	Jul 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$37.00 → $40.00	40%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Upstart Holdings is viewed positively because its June originations rose 48% year over year to $1.5 billion, supporting implied 2Q26 transaction volume of $4.227 billion, up 50% year over year and above consensus. The outlook also improves as the company’s funding base shifts toward committed capital, its AI-driven underwriting is said to support higher approval rates and lower losses, and the pursuit of a bank charter could reduce key liquidity risk while expanding margins and earnings power. With EBITDA margins already around 21% guidance and expected to improve toward 26% by 2028, the combination of accelerating volume, improving take-rate trends, and stronger profitability underpins a constructive fundamental view.

Bear case

Upstart Holdings is exposed to a fragile funding model, as stalled private credit supply and rising redemption requests could curb transaction volumes and force downward revisions to originations growth and broader estimates. Higher loss rates on underwritten loans would likely weaken investor demand, pressure funding, and create negative fair value marks on loans held on the balance sheet. In addition, elevated interest rates could make it harder to profitably underwrite borrowers at appropriate APRs below 36%, worsening growth and profitability and leaving the stock vulnerable to valuation compression.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.