Climate Change
AMOC Weakening December 2040
AMOC Weakening December 2040 · December 2040 · Trading open
No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.
About this market
No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.
Trading closes on Dec 31, 2042. The result is confirmed by National Oceanography Centre.
This contract is based on the annual-mean strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N, as measured by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS observing array and published by the National Oceanography Centre. The AMOC plays a central role in transporting heat and salt through the Atlantic Ocean, and sustained changes in its measured strength are associated with shifts in regional climate patterns, sea level along Atlantic coastlines, and large-scale ocean circulation dynamics.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Below 10Resolves Yes if the annual average strength of the AMOC falls below 10 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2040.
- Below 12Resolves Yes if the annual average strength of the AMOC falls below 12 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2040.
- Below 14Resolves Yes if the annual average strength of the AMOC falls below 14 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2040.
- Below 8Resolves Yes if the annual average strength of the AMOC falls below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2040.
Result confirmed by National Oceanography Centre.
- Trading opened
- Jan 15, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 31, 2042
- Expected result
- Dec 31, 2042
- Expected payout
- Dec 31, 2042
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.