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Temperatures

What will the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 be?

Monthly Average Global Temperature October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

Show all 11 outcomes

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Nov 12, 2026. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Global average temperature in Celsius for a given month. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase average global temperature over time.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 0Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.1Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.3Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.4Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.4 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.5 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
Show rules for all 11 outcomes
  • Above 0.6Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.6 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.7Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.7 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.8Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.8 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.9Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 0.9 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in October 2026 is greater than 1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Aug 10, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 12, 2026
Expected result
Nov 12, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 12, 2026

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.