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What will the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 be?

Monthly Average Global Temperature December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$3.9K vol.
Show all 19 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above -0.1 at 94%, ahead of Above 0 at 93%.

The market has $3.9K in volume across 708 trades; the most recent was on Oct 13, 2026.

Trading closes on Feb 12, 2027. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Global average temperature in Celsius for a given month. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase average global temperature over time.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above -0.1Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than -0.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.1Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.3Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.4Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.4 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
Show rules for all 19 outcomes
  • Above 0.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.5 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.6Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.6 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.7Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.7 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.8Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.8 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.9Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 0.9 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.0Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 1.0 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above -0.2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than -0.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.1Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 1.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.3Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 1.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.4Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 1.4 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above -0.3Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than -0.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 is greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Nov 11, 2025
Trading closes
Feb 12, 2027
Expected result
Feb 12, 2027
Expected payout
Feb 12, 2027

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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.