Temperatures
Global Temperature December 2026
Global Temperature December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open
$1.2K vol.
OutcomeChancePrice
- Above 1.1$26 vol.89%
- Above 1.15$183 vol.88%
- Above 1.2$109 vol.70%
- Above 1.25$52 vol.38%
- Above 1.3$106 vol.22%
- Above 1.33$82 vol.20%
- Above 1.5$2 vol.10%
- Above 1.38$571 vol.8%
About this market
Traders price Above 1.1 at 89%, ahead of Above 1.15 at 88%.
The market has $1.2K in volume across 279 trades; the most recent was on Oct 17, 2026.
Trading closes on Jan 8, 2027. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp) combines long-term sea surface (water) temperature (SST) and land surface (air) temperature datasets to create a complete, accurate depiction of global temperature trends. Data for global temperature is reviewed by ForecastEx at the end of each year. Data is measured in degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Above 1.1Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.15Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.15 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.2Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.2 C (2.16 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.25Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.25 C (2.25 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.3Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.3 C (2.34 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.33Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.33 C (2.39 F) above the 20th century average.
Show rules for all 14 outcomesShow fewer
- Above 1.5Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.5 C (2.7 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.38Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.38 C (2.48 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.4Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.4 C (2.52 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.45Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.45 C (2.61 F) above the 20th century average.
- Above 1Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.05Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.05 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.55Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
- Above 1.6Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2026 is greater than 1.6 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
- Trading opened
- Jul 30, 2024
- Trading closes
- Jan 8, 2027
- Expected result
- Jan 8, 2027
- Expected payout
- Jan 8, 2027
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.