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Temperatures

Global Temperature December 2030

Global Temperature December 2030 · December 2030 · Trading open

$127 vol.
Show all 11 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 1.48 at 29%, ahead of Above 1.5 at 16%.

The market has $127 in volume across 35 trades; the most recent was on Sep 20, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 10, 2031. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp) combines long-term sea surface (water) temperature (SST) and land surface (air) temperature datasets to create a complete, accurate depiction of global temperature trends. Data for global temperature is reviewed by ForecastEx at the end of each year. Data is measured in degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1.48Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.48 C (2.66 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.5Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.5 C (2.7 F) above the 20th century average.
  • 1.40Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.4 C (2.52 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.05Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.05 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.15Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.15 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.25Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.25 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
Show rules for all 11 outcomes
  • Above 1.35Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.35 C (2.43 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.45Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.45 C (2.61 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.55Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.55 C (2.79 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.6Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.6 C (2.88 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.7Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2030 is greater than 1.7 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Jul 30, 2024
Trading closes
Jan 10, 2031
Expected result
Jan 10, 2031
Expected payout
Jan 10, 2031

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.