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Temperatures

What will the average Global Temperature in 2035 be?

Global Temperature December 2035 · December 2035 · Trading open

$598 vol.
Show all 13 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 1.1 at 80%, ahead of Above 1.45 at 59%.

The market has $598 in volume across 233 trades; the most recent was on Oct 5, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 11, 2036. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp) combines long-term sea surface (water) temperature (SST) and land surface (air) temperature datasets to create a complete, accurate depiction of global temperature trends. Data for global temperature is reviewed by ForecastEx at the end of each year. Data is measured in degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1.1Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.45Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.45 C (2.61 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.5Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.5 C (2.7 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.54Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.54 C (2.77 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.3Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.59Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.59 C (2.86 F) above the 20th century average.
Show rules for all 13 outcomes
  • Above 1.69Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.69 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.4Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.4 C (2.52 F) above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.9Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 0.9 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.2Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.79Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.79 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.89Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2035 is greater than 1.89 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Jul 30, 2024
Trading closes
Jan 11, 2036
Expected result
Jan 11, 2036
Expected payout
Jan 12, 2036

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.