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Temperatures

What will the average Global Temperature in 2028 be?

Global Temperature December 2028 · December 2028 · Trading open

$116 vol.
Show all 12 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 0.9 at 24%, ahead of Above 0.95 at 22%.

The market has $116 in volume across 111 trades; the most recent was on Oct 5, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 10, 2029. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp) combines long-term sea surface (water) temperature (SST) and land surface (air) temperature datasets to create a complete, accurate depiction of global temperature trends. Data for global temperature is reviewed by ForecastEx at the end of each year. Data is measured in degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 0.9Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 0.9 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.95Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 0.95 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.05Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.05 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.1Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.15Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.15 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
Show rules for all 12 outcomes
  • Above 1.2Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 0.85Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 0.85 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.25Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.25 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.3Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.3 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.35Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.35 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.
  • Above 1.4Resolves Yes if the average Global Temperature in 2028 is greater than 1.4 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Jan 7, 2026
Trading closes
Jan 10, 2029
Expected result
Jan 10, 2029
Expected payout
Jan 10, 2029

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.