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Temperatures

US Temperature December 2026

US Temperature December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$1.7K vol.
Show all 16 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 52.6 at 97%, ahead of Above 53.1 at 96%.

The market has $1.7K in volume across 331 trades; the most recent was on Oct 16, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 8, 2027. The result is confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature comes from the U.S. Climate Division Database using the nClimDiv dataset. Data is reviewed by ForecastEx at the end of each year. Year-to-date average temperature data is measured in absolute degrees Celsius.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 52.6Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 52.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 53.1Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 53.1 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 53.6Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 53.6 F (12 C).
  • Above 53.8Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 53.8 F (12.1 C).
  • Above 54Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 54 F (12.2 C).
  • Above 54.1Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 54.1 degrees Fahrenheit.
Show rules for all 16 outcomes
  • Above 54.21Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 54.21 F (12.34 C).
  • Above 54.4Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 54.4 F (12.4 C).
  • Above 54.6Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 54.6 F (12.56 C).
  • Above 54.8Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 54.8 F (12.67 C).
  • Above 55.5Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 55.5 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 56Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 56 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 56.5Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 56.5 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 57Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 57 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 52.1Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 52.1 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • Above 57.5Resolves Yes if the average US Temperature in 2026 is greater than 57.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

Result confirmed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Trading opened
Jul 30, 2024
Trading closes
Jan 8, 2027
Expected result
Jan 8, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 8, 2027

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.