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What will the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP be?

Hong Kong Real GDP December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$1.3K vol.
Show all 13 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above -5% at 99%, ahead of Above -7% at 98%.

The market has $1.3K in volume across 196 trades; the most recent was on Oct 23, 2026.

Trading closes on Feb 10, 2027. The result is confirmed by Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

The Revised Figures on Gross Domestic Product are published by the Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department in the second month after the end of each Quarter (i.e. February, May, August, and November), usually on the second or third Friday of the month.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above -5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds -5% in Q4 2026.
  • Above -7%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds -7% in Q4 2026.
  • -1.0Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds -1% in Q4 2026.
  • -3.0Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds -3% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 1.1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 1.1% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 1.6%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 1.6% in Q4 2026.
Show rules for all 13 outcomes
  • Above 2.1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 2.1% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 2.6%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 2.6% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 3.1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 3.1% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 3.6%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 3.6% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 4.1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 4.1% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 5.1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 5.1% in Q4 2026.
  • Above 7.1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceeds 7.1% in Q4 2026.

Result confirmed by Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

Trading opened
Aug 26, 2024
Trading closes
Feb 10, 2027
Expected result
Feb 10, 2027
Expected payout
Feb 10, 2027

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.