Economic Activity
Will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
US Recession December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open
$622 vol.
About this market
Traders price US Recession By Q4 2026 at 17%.
The market has $622 in volume across 148 trades; the most recent was on Jul 31, 2026.
Trading closes on Mar 25, 2027. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A Recession is considered to have occurred when an economy experiences two or more consecutive quarters of negative real Gross Domestic Product growth.
Rules and timeline
A Yes contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse.
- US Recession By Q4 2026Resolves Yes if the United States economy enter a recession by the ends of Q4 2026.
Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Trading opened
- Sep 2, 2024
- Trading closes
- Mar 25, 2027
- Expected result
- Mar 25, 2027
- Expected payout
- Mar 25, 2027
More US Recession markets
Other dates in this series
US Recession Q2
Closes Sep 30, 2027US Recession Q3
Closes Dec 23, 2027
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.