Economic Activity
What will the US Retail Sales growth rate be?
US Retail Sales Monthly October 2026 · October 2026 · Trading open
No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.
About this market
No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.
Trading closes on Nov 17, 2026. The result is confirmed by U.S. Census Bureau.
The sales estimates represent total sales and receipts of all establishments primarily engaged in retail trade. They do not include sales at retail by manufacturers, wholesalers, service establishments, and others whose primary activity is other than retail trade.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Above -0.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -0.5% in October 2026.
- Above -1.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -1.5% in October 2026.
- Above -1%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -1% in October 2026.
- Above 0.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 0.5% in October 2026.
- Above 0%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 0% in October 2026.
- Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 1.5% in October 2026.
Show rules for all 7 outcomesShow fewer
- Above 1%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 1% in October 2026.
Result confirmed by U.S. Census Bureau.
- Trading opened
- Aug 14, 2026
- Trading closes
- Nov 17, 2026
- Expected result
- Nov 17, 2026
- Expected payout
- Nov 17, 2026
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.