Open an account
Economic Activity

What will the US Retail Sales growth rate be?

US Retail Sales Monthly December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open

$435 vol.
Show all 14 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above -3.5% at 96%, ahead of -1.0 at 93%.

The market has $435 in volume across 72 trades; the most recent was on May 14, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 15, 2027. The result is confirmed by U.S. Census Bureau.

The sales estimates represent total sales and receipts of all establishments primarily engaged in retail trade. They do not include sales at retail by manufacturers, wholesalers, service establishments, and others whose primary activity is other than retail trade.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above -3.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -3.5% in December 2026.
  • -1.0Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -1% in December 2026.
  • Above -1.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -1.5% in December 2026.
  • Above -2.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -2.5% in December 2026.
  • Above -2%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -2% in December 2026.
  • Above -3%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -3% in December 2026.
Show rules for all 14 outcomes
  • Above -0.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than -0.5% in December 2026.
  • Above 0%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 0% in December 2026.
  • Above 0.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 0.5% in December 2026.
  • 1.0Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 1% in December 2026.
  • Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 1.5% in December 2026.
  • Above 2%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 2% in December 2026.
  • Above 2.5%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 2.5% in December 2026.
  • Above 3%Resolves Yes if the US Retail Sales growth rate is greater than 3% in December 2026.

Result confirmed by U.S. Census Bureau.

Trading opened
Jan 16, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 15, 2027
Expected result
Jan 15, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 15, 2027

More US Retail Sales Monthly markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.