Harley-Davidson

HOG · NYSE

$27.19+$0.46 (+1.72%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $26.73

HOG analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 38% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold3
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $29.08 (+7.0% upside)

Low: $17.17
Now: $27.19
High: $34.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HOG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 5, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$31.00 → $33.00	44%
Citigroup	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$27.00 → $31.00	44%
UBS	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$26.00 → $28.00	58%
DA Davidson	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00 → $33.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$15.00 → $17.00	54%
Baird	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$28.00 → $30.00	45%
Loop Capital	Jul 20, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	—	27%
Citigroup	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$26.00 → $27.00	44%
DA Davidson	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$25.00 → $30.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	May 19, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$12.00 → $15.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Harley-Davidson is supported by improving U.S. retail demand, with sales up 3% Y/Y in the quarter, strong momentum in Touring, Sport, Adventure Touring, and Trike models, and a healthier channel as North America inventory fell 15% Y/Y and 85% of new-bike inventory was current MY26. Its Back to Bricks strategy is strengthening dealer trust and profitability, with management targeting a doubling of dealer profitability in 2026 and again by 2029, which should improve marketing, service, and P&A conversion across the network. The outlook is also bolstered by a broader, more accessible product lineup, including the Sprint expected to ship toward the end of CY26 and the Sportster slated for CY27, alongside a 2027 EBITDA target of $350M+ and at least $150M of annualized fixed cost reductions.

Bear case

Harley-Davidson is facing a structurally challenged business model because its core heavyweight motorcycle market is highly competitive, regulation-heavy, and sensitive to shifting tastes, while new launches do not guarantee unit growth or protection from imitators. Its reliance on third-party suppliers and a dealer-led wholesale network creates added vulnerability to raw-material inflation, tariff and trade disruptions, poor execution at retail, and difficulty adapting to a more digital, local-market selling model. The captive finance arm also adds credit exposure tied to household incomes, unemployment, and the new and used motorcycle market, while foreign currency weakness can pressure revenue and margin against globally based competitors.

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