Economic Activity
What will Japan's quarterly change in real GDP be?
Japan GDP September 2027 · September 2027 · Trading open
No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.
About this market
No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.
Trading closes on Nov 16, 2027, 6:50 PM ET. The result is confirmed by Cabinet Office of Japan.
This Contract is resolved based on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, as published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of Japan's Cabinet Office. The report can be found here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/toukei_top.html by selecting the applicable year and quarter specified in the Contract. The Resolution Data will be taken from the "First Preliminary Estimates of GDP" release. Select the "Summary" PDF and locate the "Gross Domestic Product" value in the first table.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Above -0.5%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds -0.5% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above -1.5%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds -1.5% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above -1%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds -1% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above -2%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds -2% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above 0.5%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds 0.5% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above 0%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds 0% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
Show rules for all 9 outcomesShow fewer
- Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds 1.5% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above 1%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds 1% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
- Above 2%Resolves Yes if Japan's quarterly change in real GDP exceeds 2% in Q3 2027? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).
Result confirmed by Cabinet Office of Japan.
- Trading opened
- Nov 2, 2026
- Trading closes
- Nov 16, 2027, 6:50 PM ET
- Expected result
- Nov 16, 2027
- Expected payout
- Nov 16, 2027
More Japan GDP markets
Other dates in this series
+7 more Japan GDP Q1
Closes May 10, 2027, 7:50 PM ETJapan GDP Q2
Closes Aug 16, 2027, 7:50 PM ET
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.