Temperatures
Will the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2030?
Annual Global Temperature Threshold December 2030 · December 2030 · Trading open
$26 vol.
About this market
Traders price Above 1.75 at 10%.
The market has $26 in volume across 48 trades; the most recent was on Jul 14, 2026.
Trading closes on Jan 10, 2031. The result is confirmed by NOAA.
Global average surface temperature in degrees Celsius, measured over the entire calendar year. This figure reflects the aggregated annual temperature anomaly relative to a historical pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
Rules and timeline
A Yes contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse.
- Above 1.75Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2030.
Result confirmed by NOAA.
- Trading opened
- Apr 14, 2025
- Trading closes
- Jan 10, 2031
- Expected result
- Jan 10, 2031
- Expected payout
- Jan 10, 2031
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.