Temperatures
What will the Average Global Temperature for any year be?
Annual Global Temperature Threshold December 2040 · December 2040 · Trading open
$357 vol.
About this market
Traders price Above 1.75 at 91%, ahead of Above 2 at 17%.
The market has $357 in volume across 107 trades; the most recent was on Nov 12, 2025.
Trading closes on Jan 10, 2041. The result is confirmed by NOAA.
Global average surface temperature in degrees Celsius, measured over the entire calendar year. This figure reflects the aggregated annual temperature anomaly relative to a historical pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Above 1.75Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
- Above 2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
- Above 2.25Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2.25 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
- Above 2.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
Result confirmed by NOAA.
- Trading opened
- Apr 14, 2025
- Trading closes
- Jan 10, 2041
- Expected result
- Jan 10, 2041
- Expected payout
- Jan 10, 2041
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.