Temperatures
What will the Average Global Temperature for any year be?
Annual Global Temperature Threshold December 2035 · December 2035 · Trading open
$60 vol.
About this market
Traders price Above 1.75 at 56%.
The market has $60 in volume across 22 trades; the most recent was on Nov 14, 2025.
Trading closes on Jan 10, 2036. The result is confirmed by NOAA.
Global average surface temperature in degrees Celsius, measured over the entire calendar year. This figure reflects the aggregated annual temperature anomaly relative to a historical pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Above 1.75Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2035.
- Above 1.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2035.
- Above 2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2035.
Result confirmed by NOAA.
- Trading opened
- Apr 14, 2025
- Trading closes
- Jan 10, 2036
- Expected result
- Jan 10, 2036
- Expected payout
- Jan 10, 2036
More Annual Global Temperature Threshold markets
Other dates in this series
420 open interest Annual Global Temperature Threshold
Closes Jan 10, 2041Annual Global Temperature Threshold
Closes Jan 10, 2046
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.