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What will the Average Global Temperature for any year be?

Annual Global Temperature Threshold December 2045 · December 2045 · Trading open

$1.6K vol.

About this market

Traders price Above 1.5 at 82%, ahead of Above 1.75 at 72%.

The market has $1.6K in volume across 575 trades; the most recent was on Aug 11, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 10, 2046. The result is confirmed by NOAA.

Global average surface temperature in degrees Celsius, measured over the entire calendar year. This figure reflects the aggregated annual temperature anomaly relative to a historical pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045.
  • Above 1.75Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045.
  • Above 2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045.
  • Above 2.25Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2.25 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045.
  • Above 2.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any year is greater than 2.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2045.

Result confirmed by NOAA.

Trading opened
Apr 14, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 10, 2046
Expected result
Jan 10, 2046
Expected payout
Jan 10, 2046

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.