Senate
2026 Texas Senate: Paxton Margin of Victory
Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open
$19 vol.
OutcomeChancePrice
- Paxton by more than 1 ptRepublican39%
- Paxton by more than 2 ptsRepublican32%
- Paxton by more than 3 ptsRepublican25%
- Paxton by more than 4 ptsRepublican19%
- Paxton by more than 5 ptsRepublican15%
- Paxton by more than 6 ptsRepublican10%
- Paxton by more than 7 ptsRepublican5%
About this market
Traders price Paxton by more than 1 pt at 39%, ahead of Paxton by more than 2 pts at 32%.
The market has $19 in volume across 9 trades; the most recent was on Oct 22, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. The result is confirmed by ForecastEx.
This Contract resolves based on whether Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than the applicable percentage-point margin, as reported by the Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Paxton by more than 1 ptResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 1 percentage points.
- Paxton by more than 2 ptsResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 2 percentage points.
- Paxton by more than 3 ptsResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 3 percentage points.
- Paxton by more than 4 ptsResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 4 percentage points.
- Paxton by more than 5 ptsResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 5 percentage points.
- Paxton by more than 6 ptsResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 6 percentage points.
Show rules for all 7 outcomesShow fewer
- Paxton by more than 7 ptsResolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 7 percentage points.
Result confirmed by ForecastEx.
- Trading opened
- Jul 20, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Expected result
- Dec 6, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 6, 2026
More Texas elections
22.9K open interest Texas Senate General Election
Closes Dec 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.