Economic Activity
What will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP be?
US Real GDP December 2026 · December 2026 · Trading open
$803 vol.
OutcomeChancePrice
- Above -4.5%$28 vol.94%
- Above -3.5%$45 vol.91%
- Above -2.5%$99 vol.90%
- Above -1.5%$128 vol.89%
- Above -0.5%$125 vol.87%
- Above 0.5%$104 vol.76%
- 1.0$142 vol.59%
- Above 1.5%$133 vol.55%
About this market
Traders price Above -4.5% at 94%, ahead of Above -3.5% at 91%.
The market has $803 in volume across 128 trades; the most recent was on Oct 23, 2026.
Trading closes on Mar 25, 2027. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. Real GDP measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States (without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them). Changes in Real GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- Above -4.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -4.5% in Q4 2026.
- Above -3.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -3.5% in Q4 2026.
- Above -2.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -2.5% in Q4 2026.
- Above -1.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -1.5% in Q4 2026.
- Above -0.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -0.5% in Q4 2026.
- Above 0.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 0.5% in Q4 2026.
Show rules for all 9 outcomesShow fewer
- 1.0Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 1% in Q4 2026.
- Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 1.5% in Q4 2026.
- Above 2%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 2% in Q4 2026.
Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Trading opened
- Dec 11, 2024
- Trading closes
- Mar 25, 2027
- Expected result
- Mar 25, 2027
- Expected payout
- Mar 25, 2027
More US Real GDP markets
Other dates in this series
+14 more US Real GDP Q4
Closes Mar 30, 2028US Real GDP Q4
Closes Mar 27, 2031US Real GDP Q4
Closes Mar 27, 2036
Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.