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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2028 · Aug 15, 2028 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

Show all 13 outcomes

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Aug 17, 2028. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 1%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 1% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 11%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 11% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 16%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 16% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 21%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 21% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 26%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 26% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 31%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 31% on August 15, 2028.
Show rules for all 13 outcomes
  • Above 36%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 36% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 41%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 41% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 46%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 46% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 51%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 51% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 56%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 56% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 6%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 6% on August 15, 2028.
  • Above 61%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 61% on August 15, 2028.

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
May 15, 2025
Trading closes
Aug 17, 2028
Expected result
Aug 17, 2028
Expected payout
Aug 17, 2028

More United States Drought markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.