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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

Show all 11 outcomes

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Nov 5, 2026. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 38%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 38% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 40%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 40% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 42%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 42% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 44%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 44% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 46%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 46% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 48%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 48% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
Show rules for all 11 outcomes
  • Above 50%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 50% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 52%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 52% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 54%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 54% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 56%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 56% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 58%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 58% on November 3, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
Sep 28, 2026
Trading closes
Nov 5, 2026
Expected result
Nov 5, 2026
Expected payout
Nov 5, 2026

More United States Drought markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.