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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2030 · Aug 13, 2030 · Trading open

$131 vol.
Show all 20 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 35% at 51%, ahead of Above 39% at 49%.

The market has $131 in volume across 24 trades; the most recent was on Mar 14, 2025.

Trading closes on Aug 15, 2030. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 35%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 35% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 39%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 39% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 0%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 0% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 10%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 10% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 15%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 15% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 20%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 20% on August 13, 2030.
Show rules for all 20 outcomes
  • Above 25%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 25% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 30%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 30% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 33%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 33% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 37%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 37% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 41%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 41% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 43%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 43% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 45%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 45% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 5%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 5% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 50%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 50% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 55%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 55% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 60%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 60% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 65%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 65% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 70%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 70% on August 13, 2030.
  • Above 75%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 75% on August 13, 2030.

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
Oct 1, 2024
Trading closes
Aug 15, 2030
Expected result
Aug 15, 2030
Expected payout
Aug 15, 2030

More United States Drought markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.