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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2035 · Aug 14, 2035 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

Show all 20 outcomes

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Aug 16, 2035. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 0%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 0% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 10%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 10% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 15%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 15% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 20%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 20% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 25%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 25% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 30%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 30% on August 14, 2035.
Show rules for all 20 outcomes
  • Above 34%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 34% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 36%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 36% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 38%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 38% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 40%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 40% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 42%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 42% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 44%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 44% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 46%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 46% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 5%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 5% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 50%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 50% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 55%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 55% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 60%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 60% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 65%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 65% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 70%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 70% on August 14, 2035.
  • Above 75%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 75% on August 14, 2035.

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
Oct 1, 2024
Trading closes
Aug 16, 2035
Expected result
Aug 16, 2035
Expected payout
Aug 16, 2035

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.