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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2027 · Aug 17, 2027 · Trading open

$154 vol.
Show all 18 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 5% at 91%, ahead of Above 10% at 84%.

The market has $154 in volume across 34 trades; the most recent was on Oct 25, 2025.

Trading closes on Aug 19, 2027. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 5%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 5% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 10%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 10% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 15%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 15% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 20%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 20% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 25%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 25% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 31%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 31% on August 17, 2027.
Show rules for all 18 outcomes
  • Above 33%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 33% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 35%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 35% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 39%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 39% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 41%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 41% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 37%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 37% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 50%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 50% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 43%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 43% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 45%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 45% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 60%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 60% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 55%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 55% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 65%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 65% on August 17, 2027.
  • Above 70%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 70% on August 17, 2027.

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
Oct 1, 2024
Trading closes
Aug 19, 2027
Expected result
Aug 19, 2027
Expected payout
Aug 19, 2027

More United States Drought markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.