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Monthly Global Temperature Threshold December 2040

Monthly Global Temperature Threshold December 2040 · December 2040 · Trading open

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closes on Jan 10, 2041. The result is confirmed by NOAA.

Global average surface temperature in degrees Celsius for a given calendar month. This value reflects the average monthly temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 2Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any month is greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
  • Above 2.25Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any month is greater than 2.25 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
  • Above 2.5Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any month is greater than 2.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.
  • Above 2.75Resolves Yes if the Average Global Temperature for any month is greater than 2.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040.

Result confirmed by NOAA.

Trading opened
Apr 14, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 10, 2041
Expected result
Jan 10, 2041
Expected payout
Jan 10, 2041

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.