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What will the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP be?

US Real GDP September 2026 · September 2026 · Trading open

$2K vol.
  • Above -1.5%$160 vol.
    97%
    YesNo
  • Above -2%$162 vol.
    97%
    YesNo
  • Above -0.5%$180 vol.
    96%
    YesNo
  • Above -1%$152 vol.
    96%
    YesNo
  • Above -2.5%$135 vol.
    96%
    YesNo
  • Above -3.5%$39 vol.
    96%
    YesNo
  • Above -3%$113 vol.
    96%
    YesNo
  • Above 0%$123 vol.
    96%
    YesNo
Show all 19 outcomes
  • Above 0.5%$150 vol.
    95%
    YesNo
  • Above 1%$206 vol.
    95%
    YesNo
  • Above 1.5%$256 vol.
    94%
    YesNo
  • Above 2%$130 vol.
    93%
    YesNo
  • Above 2.5%$153 vol.
    78%
    YesNo
  • Above 3%$45 vol.
    51%
    YesNo
  • Above 3.5%$21 vol.
    36%
    YesNo
  • Above 4%$11 vol.
    25%
    YesNo
  • Above 4.5%$14 vol.
    13%
    YesNo
  • Above -4%
    No trades yet
    YesNo
  • Above 5%
    No trades yet
    YesNo

About this market

Traders price Above -1.5% at 97%, ahead of Above -2% at 97%.

The market has $2K in volume across 290 trades; the most recent was on Oct 30, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 23, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. The result is confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. Real GDP measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States (without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them). Changes in Real GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above -1.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -1.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above -2%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -2% in Q3 2026.
  • Above -0.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -0.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above -1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -1% in Q3 2026.
  • Above -2.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -2.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above -3.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -3.5% in Q3 2026.
Show rules for all 19 outcomes
  • Above -3%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -3% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 0%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 0% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 0.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 0.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 1%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 1% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 1.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 1.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 2%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 2% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 2.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 2.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 3%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 3% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 3.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 3.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 4%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 4% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 4.5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 4.5% in Q3 2026.
  • Above -4%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds -4% in Q3 2026.
  • Above 5%Resolves Yes if the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceeds 5% in Q3 2026? (economy) (economic output) (macroeconomics).

Result confirmed by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trading opened
Jan 22, 2026
Trading closes
Dec 23, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Expected result
Dec 23, 2026
Expected payout
Dec 23, 2026

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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.