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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2026 · Oct 6, 2026 · Trading closed

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

  • Above 10%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 12%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 14%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 16%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 18%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 20%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 22%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 24%
    No trades yet
    Closed
Show all 18 outcomes
  • Above 26%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 28%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 30%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 32%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 34%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 36%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 38%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 40%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 42%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 44%
    No trades yet
    Closed

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closed on Oct 8, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 10%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 10% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 12%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 12% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 14%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 14% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 16%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 16% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 18%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 18% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 20%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 20% on October 6, 2026.
Show rules for all 18 outcomes
  • Above 22%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 22% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 24%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 24% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 26%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 26% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 28%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 28% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 30%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 30% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 32%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 32% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 34%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 34% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 36%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 36% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 38%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 38% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 40%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 40% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 42%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 42% on October 6, 2026.
  • Above 44%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 44% on October 6, 2026.

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
Sep 3, 2026
Trading closed
Oct 8, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Expected result
Oct 8, 2026
Expected payout
Oct 8, 2026

More United States Drought markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.