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Climate Change

What will the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions be?

United States Drought 2026 · Oct 13, 2026 · Trading closed

No trades yet. The chart appears after the first trade.

  • Above 38%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 40%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 42%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 44%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 46%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 48%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 50%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 52%
    No trades yet
    Closed
Show all 11 outcomes
  • Above 54%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 56%
    No trades yet
    Closed
  • Above 58%
    No trades yet
    Closed

About this market

No trades have been recorded on this market yet, so there is no market price for any outcome.

Trading closed on Oct 15, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. The result is confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. Drought conditions are a major factor in the agricultural output of a region or nation. For more research and information on these markets, visit the Weather, Climate & Energy Analysis and Decision Support Website: https://weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/weather.html

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 38%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 38% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 40%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 40% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 42%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 42% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 44%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 44% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 46%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 46% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 48%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 48% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
Show rules for all 11 outcomes
  • Above 50%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 50% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 52%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 52% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 54%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 54% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 56%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 56% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).
  • Above 58%Resolves Yes if the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceeds 58% on October 13, 2026? (dry conditions) (water shortage) (weather).

Result confirmed by US Drought Monitor.

Trading opened
Sep 28, 2026
Trading closed
Oct 15, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Expected result
Oct 15, 2026
Expected payout
Oct 15, 2026

More United States Drought markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.